The generic congressional vote question does not mention specific candidates. [55] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. Tech: Matt Latourelle Nathan Bingham Ryan Burch Kirsten Corrao Beth Dellea Travis Eden Tate Kamish Margaret Kearney Eric Lotto Joseph Sanchez. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. UPDATED Nov. 7, 2022, at 1:58 PM Republicans are favored to win the House The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often.. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. TheInteractiveand2023views use redistricted lines,placing incumbents where applicable. The candidate listed may change based on primary results or other factors. The table below includes election results for seats that were open because the incumbent lost re-election in a primary. Use this as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. There are three tiers of the program, with each requiring that candidates meet more rigorous goals in order to qualify. The final 2022 House ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections. United States House of Representatives elections, 2022, Seats open as a result of an incumbent losing a primary, U.S. House races without major party opposition, Non-voting delegate seats up for election in 2022, U.S. House races with two incumbents, 2022, Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022, Newly created seats after the 2020 census, U.S. House incumbents not running for re-election in 2022. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. Republicans are widely expected to gain at least a few additional House seats in 2022 by virtue of controlling states with far more House districts during the redistricting process. What Election Day looks like based on polls alone, What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more, What Election Day looks like when we add experts ratings to the Classic forecast. We conduct public opinion polls on a variety of topics to inform our audience on events in the news and other topics of interest. Miles Coleman, along with our Center for Politics colleague Carah Ong Whaley, will be hosting a Twitter Spaces at noon eastern on Thursday to discuss the looming midterm elections. The generic congressional vote rating indicates which political party voters support in a congressional election. His latest book,The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump, was released in 2018 by Yale University Press. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable . "[32] Those districts and incumbents are listed in the table below. The Chairman, Committee on Media and Public Affairs, House of Representatives, Benjamin Kalu, has won the election for the seat of Bende Federal . All 435 districts were up for election. Table 1 shows that the presidents party has lost House seats in 17 of 19 midterm elections since World War II and Senate seats in 13 of 19. The Maryland Court of Appeals extended the candidate filing deadline from February 22, 2022, to March 22, 2022. This is an interactive House map derived from the Deluxe version of theFiveThirtyEight 2022 Election Forecast. Ten districts were open because the incumbent lost in a primary. CrowdwisdomLive Quebec Election 2022 Predictions: . Of the 410 incumbents who ran for re-election, 247 (60.2%) faced contested primaries. November 7: CA-22, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34 move from Toss-up to Tilts R; CA-49, IN-01, NY-03 Leans to Tilts D; CT-05, NV-01 Tilts D to Toss-up; IL-08, WA-06 Safe to Likely D; ME-02, MN-02 Toss-up to Leans D; NY-22 Leans to Tilts R; OH-01 Toss-up to Leans R; TX-28 Tilts to Leans D; VA-02 Tilts to Leans R; WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up. Nine incumbents six Democrats and three Republicans were defeated. Glenn Youngkin flipped the following fall. Scholten defeated Gibbs in the general election. Policy: Christopher Nelson Caitlin Styrsky Molly Byrne Katharine Frey Jimmy McAllister Samuel Postell The final 2022 House ratings from Inside Elections. Hover or click through to see the share of votes were forecasting for each candidate. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. The generic ballot provides a measure of the national political environment at the time of the midterm election while the number of seats defended by the presidents party provides a measure of exposure to risk. Democrats held 30 of those districts, Republicans held seven, and two were newly created districts after the 2020 census. Although many of the most competitive primaries take place for open seats or offices that are held by a different party, even high-ranking federal officeholders can lose renomination to primary challengers. Current Cook Political 2022 House forecast. -- Abortion dominates Democratic messaging, while Republicans are much less likely to mention it. The final2022 House ratings from Politico. Ellis' calculations included blank votes in this race. Five were open because they were newly created districts where no incumbent filed to run. All 435 U.S. House seats are up for election this year. Currently, they have 76 seats in the National Assembly. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964. The North Carolina State Board of Elections announced that candidate filing, having been suspended by the state supreme court in December 2021, would resume on February 24, 2022, and conclude on March 4, 2022. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. The 2023 Nigerian House of Representatives elections in Abia State will be held on 25 February 2023, to elect the 3 House of Representatives members from Abia State, one from each of the state's three senatorial districts. The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. File usage on Commons. In the House data, the only point that appears to be conspicuously far removed from the line is the one for 2002 the midterm election that occurred shortly after the 9/11 attacks at a time when the incumbent president, George W. Bush, remained extraordinarily popular. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. McLeod-Skinner's margin of victory over Schrader in the primary. Table 2 displays the results of regression analyses of House and Senate seat change in midterm elections between 1946 and 2018. The tendency of the presidents party to lose seats in Congress in midterm elections is one of the best-known regularities in American politics. We're constantly speaking with campaigns to form our ratings. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Two predictors largely explain the variation in seat swing in midterm elections: the generic ballot and the number of House and Senate seats defended by the presidents party. In the Senate data, the point for 2002 is also well above the regression line while points for several other elections including 1962 and 1978 are also well above or below the line. Governor Andy Beshear (D) signed HB172 into law, extending the filing deadline for partisan candidates from January 7, 2022, to January 25, 2022. No Electoral College majority, House decides election. Updated September 23, 2022 10:43 am. Size of this PNG preview of this SVG file: 424 600 pixels. There were 30 U.S. House Democratic battleground primaries in 2022. Our House Election Forecast has been upgraded into a Live Election Forecast that will predict every Congressional race in the Nation using the latest data from the election results. WINNER Mike Garcia, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to. 63Non-voting delegates 63.1American Samoa 63.2District of Columbia 63.3Guam 63.4Northern Mariana Islands 63.5United States Virgin Islands 64See also 65Notes 66References Toggle the table of contents 2022 United States House of Representatives elections 12 languages Deutsch Espaol Franais Suomi The Interactive and 2023 views use redistricted lines, placing incumbents where applicable. We have several rating changes this week in House and gubernatorial races, and we also wanted to update our thinking on the Senate. Gibbs defeated Meijer in the primary. Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. Each square represents an instance where Democrats or Republicans get that much of the popular vote and that many seats. [47][48], The following table displays members included in the NRCC's Patriot Program for the 2022 election cycle. Republicans will win the House of Representatives, CNN projects, in a victory that will fall short of their hopes of a "red wave" but thwart President Joe Biden's domestic agenda and will. A smaller Democratic lead in the generic ballot, or a Republican lead, would predict a Republican edge in the House, and possibly also in the Senate. You can also view these ratings as a table. By Leke Baiyewu. Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four . Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. The results indicate that Democrats are likely to gain seats in the Senate and have a close to 50/50 chance to hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives, although the forecast depends on what the generic ballot polling looks like next year. A net loss of only a handful of House seats and a single Senate seat next November would give Republicans control of both chambers. We default to the Deluxe . In the 2014 primary for Virginia's 7th Congressional District, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R), ranked behind only then-Speaker John Boehner (R) in Republican House leadership, was defeated by economics professor Dave Brat (R). Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Steve outlines the four factors that have made control of the Senate a coin flip. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Alabama postponed the filing deadline for primary congressional candidates from January 28, 2022, to February 11, 2022. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. 2022 United States House of Representatives Predictions. Toss-up to Leans R: CA-22, IL-17, IN-01, MI-07, NV-03, OH-01, OH-09, PA-17, RI-02, TX-34. Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. The final2022 House Power Rankingsfrom Fox News. He withdrew before the runoff. The final 2022 House ratings from Cook Political Report. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index (PVI) is a measurement tool that scores each congressional district based on how strongly it leans toward one political party. A similar situation occurred in the 2012 election, in which Republicans managed to hold onto their majority despite losing the national popular vote for the House. You can also view these ratingsas a table. Box 400806Charlottesville, VA 22904, 2020 By the Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia. Clickme! TheCurrent Houseview on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. Click on the to see the other two. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections were using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch Hover over or tap a district to view the incumbent's name. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. As with the House, the margin of control in the next Senate is likely to be very narrow. Apportionment is the process whereby the 435 districts in the U.S. House of Representatives are allotted to the states on the basis of population. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Congressional redistricting was completed after the 2020 census for 435 of the 435 seats (100%) in the U.S. House of Representatives. All 435 seats will be contested, most with redrawn boundaries. [14] One district Indiana's 2nd was vacant because the incumbent passed away.[15]. [1] Six states (Texas, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained districts, and seven states (California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia) lost districts. The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. Given the expected impact of redistricting, however, Democrats probably need a larger lead to keep control of the House. Senate Projection. Heading into the November 8, 2022, elections, Democrats held a 220-212 advantage in the U.S. House with three vacant seats. [49] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight.[50][51]. Higher bars represent more common outcomes. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). In this section, you will find a list of noteworthy and notable Republican and Democratic primaries taking place across the country for the U.S. House. 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